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Journal number 1 ∘ Aida Guliyeva Ulviyya Rzayeva


This article discusses one of the most important problems of this century - the limit of economic growth, considers its causes, among which are called the depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution on a background of increasing world popu­lation, also demographic models are presented. Further criteria for assessing environmental pollution are proposed by authors, the advantages and disadvantages of technological innovation are highlighted. Another aspect on which the authors focus their attention is the economy of small and developing countries, to which Azerbaijan belongs. Comprehensively considered indisputable importance of human capital for improvement of economy of the country in particular and the world economy in general, and in this perspective, the authors carried out comparative analysis of the knowledge economy of Azerbaijan with developed countries.

Keywords: limit of the economic growth, demographic growth, the balance of the system, technological innovation, human capital

  1. The problem of the twenty-first century: limit of the economic growth. Causes and consequences

Macroeconomic policies in most countries, especially which have larger GDP, as a rule, over the decades has been officially focused on economic growth. Economic growth in terms of the modern economy means increasing of production and consumption of goods and services. This is facilitated by population growth, by the increasing of consumption per capita and labor productivity, and the growth of real GDP is an indicator of the process. However, in today's world the idea of the infinite technological development periodically is questioned. Taking into account the costs associated with such policy, some economists, scientists and philosophers have questioned the biophysical limits to growth and the very desirability of continuous growth. There is a combination of factors leading to the limit of economic growth.

Beginning of doubts about the long-term perspectives of continued growth in the industrial era, as a rule, refer to the publication of T. Malthus' "An Essay on the Principle of Population" in 1798, proposed the following approach: population growth is not always desirable, because this growth is faster than the increasing of the possibility of providing the population with food [Malthus T., 2003 ]. In this matter, S.P. Kapitsa opposes to him. According to Kapitsa, the resources do not determine the rate of world population growth and its limit [Kapitsa S., 1992: 65-79]. The human life-support system always guarantees the possibility of its existence. S.P. Kapitsa formulates the principle of the demographic imperative. According to him, the growing number of people on the planet and characteristics of such growth are determined by the number of people living on the planet. Here is also criticism of the theory of T. Malthus by A. Whitehead: "We can distinguish three reasons explaining why the European internal conditions nullified the effect of the law of Malthus for more than a millennium. These are the expansion of commerce, the development of technology and the discovery of new continents" [Whitehead A., 2009: 114-119].

Today's debate about the limits of growth began in 1972 with the Club of Rome’s report "The Limits to Growth", containing the results of modeling the growth of human population and the exhaustion of resources [Meadows D..., 1972]. The report is based on data obtained from the computer simulation of increasing of consumption of resource. This model was constructed considering the five parameters - the world population, industrialization, food production, depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution. Each of them has its own dynamics and impact on other parameters. From the behavior of the model, it was clear that the approach to the limit of values and the collapse are unavoidable, and the reason in this case is the depletion of non-renewable resources. The volume of industrial capital reaches the level requiring the huge influx of resources. The process of this growth depletes the available raw materials. Rising raw material prices and the depletion of fields for resource extraction takes more resources and, therefore, investments in future growth are fewer.

Many researches and analytical tools support some of the conclusions of the Rome club. The average number of populations of certain wildlife species around the world is about half of their number in comparison with the period of the 40-year-old. At the current forecast, levels of warming and oxidation Coral reefs may be lost at all by 2050 [Hoegh-Guldberg O., 1999: 839-866].

The aim of this project was not to create the futuristic models of management, and the prevention of the global crisis that may occur if we let these trends to develop in the same direction, and thereby propose changes in the political, economic and social systems in order to eliminate the possibility of such crises. In addition, the main purpose of creating the model was to determine which of the patterns of behavior are most characteristic for the world system when it approaches the limits of growth.

After publishing some economists, scientists and politicians criticized the report. They expressed doubts about the methodology, calculations, conclusions, rhetoric of the project. Economists agree that growth cannot last forever, but believed that natural course of events is preferable to interventions. The technology will be able to solve all the problems raised in the report, but only if the growth will continue, because the model ignores the technological developments which may prevent the destruction of the environment and ignores the ability of free markets to adapt to the changing situation due to its economic flexibility. For the past three years under the influence of criticism of the model criteria for the impact of technology have been added: restriction of birth rate, "green" technologies in agriculture, energy and others. If the growth stop too early, billions of people will be doomed to permanent poverty [Turner G., 2008].

  1. The evolution of of humanity and the problem of overpopulation

By the highest standards, the structure of all the major relationships in the system is based on the relation of population and industrial capital. They reflect the possibility of exponential increasing of capital and population, if the positive feedbacks dominate (fertility and investments), and decreasing if negative feedbacks dominate (mortality and amortization). If the contours are balanced, the population and the capital can be stabilized. If our goal is to keep the balance of the system for a long time and achieve a longer life span, we can list a minimum set of global equilibrium conditions: 

1. The amount of capital and population remain constant. Birth rates and death rates are equal, as the rates of investment and amortization.

2. All initial and final values - fertility, mortality, investment and amortization of capital are minimal.

3. Society according to its needs sets the levels of capital and population stabilization, and the relationships between these levels. When technological advances create new opportunities, these levels will be able freely changed and carefully regulated.

The models of demographic cycles are in good agreement with historical data and describe the population dynamics on time scales about hundred years, but if we consider the same demographic process, but on a much larger scale - if to trace the dynamics mankind for all time of its existence, then we appear very different picture. The number of humankind grows hyperbolically [Korotaev A..., 2007: 155-181].

For the first time this phenomenon was observed in 1960 by fon Foerster, Mora and Amiot [Foerster, H. von..., 1960: 1291-1295]. They conducted statistical evaluation of demographic data and found that the curve of the Earth's population growth is best approximated by the hyperbolic curve.

Since the 1960s, the relative population growth began to slow down and logistic type of growth has replaced the hyperbolic world demographic growth. Since 1989, the absolute growth rate of the world population began to decline. By 2100, the growth may be reduced to less than 5 million people in a decade. According to the model of the French physician, Jean-Noel Biraben the limit of the growth will be 10-12 billion. Most of the other models suggests a somewhat less level of stabilization of the world population [Kapitsa S., 1992: 65-79]. Enough plausible is scenario of reducing of the population of the Earth after reaching its maximum value. The final scenario of the world population still not clear. We can assume that population growth happens identically (or, as they say - self-similar), that is by one and the same law with different scales of time and number of people.

The meaning of the law consists in the fact that the development is self-accelerated, and each next step uses all previously accumulated experience of humankind, which plays a major role in this process. Long human childhood, language acquisition, learning, education and training considerably determine the unique and specific to the people way of development and self-organization. It can be assumed that it is not the rate of reproduction, but namely the cumulative experience, interaction, distribution and transmission of knowledge, customs and culture from generation to generation qualitatively differ the evolution of humankind and determine the rate of population growth. This interaction should be considered as an internal dynamic property of the system.

The most mathematized and developed work in the economy and demography of the region seem to work of Michael Kremer [Kremer M., 1993: 681-716]. This paper presents several models describing the process of mutual growth in population and the level of technology from different angles. In the model of M. Kremer the dynamics lies in the equation for technological growth. Along with other researchers [Aghion P..., 1992: 323-351; Grossman G..., 1991: 43-61] he assumes that the growth of the population is pushing people to the development of new technologies, and ultimately the growth of technology is proportional to the population. This thesis was put forward previously by S. Kuznets [Kuznets S., 1972: 247-258] and J. Simon [Simon J., 1977] in the formulation: "More people means more potential inventors". Kremer clarifies this thesis: "A simple model suggests that, other things being equal, the probability of the invention of something by one person does not depend on the population. Thus, among the larger population there will be proportionally more people lucky or smart enough to offer new ideas".

3. Criteria for assessing the environmental damage. Bet on technology and human capital

 As part of the overall objective to protect natural resources, the following main criteria are available for determining the costs in the case of harm from hazardous wastes of natural resources.

  1. Assessment of damage: standardized methods for assessing of the biological and economic losses from hazardous substances must be developed.
  2. Absorption of losses: in the determination of losses all aspects of loss must be fully covered, including direct and indirect damage, destruction, and at the same time, taking into account factors of replenishment, good value and the ability of ecosystems or resources to recovery.
  3. Profitability: corrective actions that provide the effectiveness must be selected. Necessary expenses include general short- and long-term costs of such actions and operation and maintenance costs for the entire period of corrective action.
  4. Non-market measures: using of non-market measures for the assessment of important natural resources are not measured by traditional means.
  5. The costs, which are not included in the price, market value or reconstruction costs must not be considered. Measurement of the restoration costs by traditional methods is not included in the estimation of the cost.
  6. Recovery of resource: recovery of all costs requires repairing of the environment in its state in which it was before interacting by dangerous substances.
  7. Substitution of costs: recovery of spare charges must be accounted where it is possible.
  8. Applicable assessment: action to repair the damage should be enough not only for covering of unforeseen losses.  In some cases, the valuation may be greater than this level by including intermediate values of losses from resource damage.

Above we talked about technologies that may replace the raw economy in the future. However, at the same time there is another important aspect of the technological innovation, which should be considered from the perspective of human capital. At the present stage of economic development, human capital is an independent economic resource [Shestakova I., 2014: 37-42]. The difference of this resource from natural resources, classic work and ordinary capital is the necessity for constant improvement of investment in it, and the existence of significant temporary benefits in return on these investments. However, technological advances can solve the problem of increasing of these limits. Technological knowledge understands the best ways for producing of goods and services. The difference between the technological knowledge of human capital consists in facts that technological knowledge is the very development and understanding of the best practices (answer the question of “how to produce”), but under human capital we understand the degree of people mastering these methods, the transformation of knowledge into labor skills. New technology makes work more efficient and allow increasing the production of goods and services. Technological knowledges are extremely important, as they allow us to solve the problem of limited resources; they are the main factors in accelerating of economic growth.

Nevertheless, it is necessary consider that technology requires capital, based on the skills and savings of labor force, because the demand for the latter in the future will fall. Now there is a warp towards automation and cybernetics. Beldon Daniels in 1992 in the original version of the book with the working title "Re-discovering America" wrote that in the history of humanity there had had been four main age. The fourth stage he named the era of intelligence [Hayden G., 1991: 917-935]. The question arises: how the population will be provided by the employment in developed economies. This is compounded by the necessity to reduce consumption for families with middle and low income, which will inevitably lead to slower economic growth.

4.The factor of human capital in the economies of small developing countries

One of the discussion points created by "Limits to Growth" theory is indisputable link of economic growth with energy reserves. Of course, it is good if the country is rich in natural resources: fertile land, mineral resources etc. [Almazova O..., 1993]. However, it is easy to notice that this condition is not necessary: countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are almost completely devoid of natural resources, but show the surprisingly rapid economic growth. For these countries, the human resources are of great importance. This refers to the numerous, well-educated, energetic and hard-working population. For comparison, the indicator that best describes the level of economic growth is GDP. The population of Azerbaijan is an average of 9.5 million people, Azerbaijan's GDP $ 7884 per capita, GDP of Singapore with population of 5.5 million people is $ 56285 per capita for 2014.

Up until the 1960s, economists suggested that the main problems of economic development of small countries, which include Azerbaijan, were derived from the narrowness of their domestic market. Therefore, they cannot benefit from the effects of economies of scale, which makes domestic industry less competitive. Some high-tech industry, as a rule, in small countries cannot be formed as a matter of principle. Additional limitations are associated with the lack of resources - human, natural, capital, and the remoteness of many small countries from the major economic centers, leading to an increase of the costs of transport and communications [Kaveshnikov N., 2015: 84-92]. 

At the end of the twentieth century, the negative impact of these factors decreased. The processes of globalization have reduced transportation and other communication costs. The appearance of new international programs also strongly contributes to this - as an example we can talk about the North-South highway and railway line in Azerbaijan connecting the basins of the Black and Caspian Seas. 

Another successful strategy was to attract into its territory global TNCs and the inclusion to the world economy through the integration of production chains within and between TNCs. The basis of Azerbaijan's economy is the extraction and export of oil. Since the beginning of the 1990s, further development perspectives of oil production in Azerbaijan was connected with the involvement of foreign capital and multinational oil companies to this sphere. 

Finally, globalization made it possible for a number of small countries to build their economies on using the available natural resources. Tourism in Azerbaijan - is one of the sectors of the economy, which is growing rapidly in recent years. Comparatively small territory of Azerbaijan is located at the junction of Europe and Asia. It makes Azerbaijan very attractive for the development of tourism business. Nine natural areas are presented on the territory of Azerbaijan. However, at the same time investment in the tourism sector in Azerbaijan is 1.9% of GDP.

The globalizing world, giving to smaller countries the possibility of development through specialization, makes them extremely dependent on global processes. This dependence can take various forms, for example, dependence on the monetary policy of the large and developed countries, with the main reserve currencies, especially the dollar and euro. Not being able to use the national currency in international payments, small countries have to generate foreign exchange reserves (if they have this possibility), and many of them are practicing some form of "anchor" of the national currency, refusing to conduct the independent monetary policy. Thus, they "import" costs of monetary policy of EU or US. Therefore, globalization probably exhaust its positive potential. In this case, problems in Azerbaijan are related to two devaluations during 2015 and conditioned by factors, which include the oil prices downfall and consequences of the "domino effect" in global economic crisis.

Finally, the majority of small countries is not able have the impact on formation of the "rules of the game". We are talking about unequal conditions of raw materials and high-tech trade, the practice of the IMF in providing of credits subject to such macroeconomic policy, which is beneficial for the developed countries-leaders.

In addition, for small countries, the cost of failure is higher, because resources or the stability of the system may not be enough for the fixing.

Limited resources and the consequent inability to provide for its own security historically characterized low status of the country. In this situation, there are several behavioral strategies for small country to survive and maintain greater or lesser degree of independence:

  1. The balance of forces between the great powers (Belgium before World War II);
  2. The protectorate of the great powers (modern Israel);
  3. Conquest disadvantage of small countries, as a rule, because of their lack of resources or the high costs of capturing and keeping the control.

Consider all of these political factors in the context of Azerbaijan. In the coming year, both misfortunes in modern interpretation - the military conflict and economic crisis - have become serious geopolitical challenges, in fact, in entire Eurasia. To a certain extent, they face Azerbaijan as well as the unresolved Karabakh conflict, the fall of oil indexes, the new round of confrontation between nuclear powers, etc. Along with this, Azerbaijan is one of the most important energy centers in the region and, one might say, has played a key role in ensuring Europe's energy security. Regard to cooperation with the world powers, we can say that the choice of strong ally, of course, is the main issue that every country aims in the conditions of colossal political instability. For two great powers - Turkey and Russia, Azerbaijan is important in the geopolitical and economic context. In addition, this interest extends beyond the region. For Baku, it is important to maintain the relationship with Russia, because open confrontation may seriously damage the position of Azerbaijan in the international arena. The aggravation of the Russian-Turkish relations will not effect on relations of these countries and Azerbaijan. For Azerbaijan, Turkey is the military and strategic partner, and Russia is a strategically important neighbor. As regards the third item, Azerbaijan has close economic and political ties with Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which are considered the major players in the Middle East. Thus, Azerbaijan has broken the stereotype that the country's foreign policy in the Middle East is exclusively tied to the policy of Iran and Turkey in the region. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's position is clear in relation to the military conflicts in the Middle East.  Taking into account the foreign policy of Azerbaijan and its raw material supplies, we can say that Baku can act as an intermediary not only between the West and the Islamic world, but also among the Muslim countries, especially for the settlement of armed conflicts, which is very necessary to the Islamic world now.

In addition to political factors and raw materials, guarantee of success of small countries are the human capital, high technologies and achievements in the field of research and development.  By S. Kuznets, the accumulated initial human capital is enough for being on top of the factors, which determine the successful application of experience of advanced country. The high level and quality of accumulated human capital is needed to accelerate the implementation of institutional reforms, the transformation of the state, the technological renovation of production, market economy reforms and so on. Moreover, in the end, enough high level and quality of human capital provides for the country the accessing to the stable growth of GDP and increase of the level and quality of life. Thus, according to Kuznets, human capital is the main dominant of the possible sustainable growth of developing countries' economies.

Human capital is considered as a reserve, which can be accumulated and be the source of future growth [Bogatyreva V., 2007: 2-9]. Estimation of the contribution of human capital to economic growth is given in the models of R. Lucas and P. Romer [Romer P., 1986: 1002-1037]. Taking the Solow's model as a basis [Solow R., 1956: 65-94] they divided capital on physical and human. Using the same production function for the physical and human capital, as well as for consumption allows transforming the unit of consumption per unit of either physical or human capital. Thus, the proportion of each element in the total capital with revenue of growth is revealed. Insufficient development of physical capital can be compensated by the development of human capital, and vice versa. Productivity growth in these models are more associated with the investments in human capital, which allowed revealing positive externalities arising from this. The part of the population, which has general and specific professional knowledge, is the most effective factor in economic growth. However, education is only precondition for future economic growth. It becomes the source of development only when the conditions have been created to improve the formal education system and skills for applying the knowledge in practice.

Researches of labor productivity depending on the level of education shows that with increase by 10% of the level of education labor productivity increases by 9%, while increasing by 10% of the share capital the labor productivity increases by only 4% [Kulaeva T., 2007: 11-18].

Representatives of the "new growth theory" P. Romer and R. Lucas began to consider scientific and technological progress as an internal factor of economic growth and relied heavily on the concept of human capital. R. Lucas adds to the classical equation of Cobb-Douglas the factor of intellectual capital and by using the results of this model explains the success of South Korea and Taiwan in terms of economic growth. The lack of the physical, real capital is compensated by the high level of intellectual resources in these countries [Naumenko E., 2008: 160-164].

The concept of Index of human capital considers such indicators as education, health, employment of the population (provides for training and development of human talents), environment (includes legal protection, as well as the development of infrastructure in the state). The index of human capital development measures the most successful countries in the world as far as the long-term. The top three ranking comprising 124 countries of the world includes Finland, Norway and Switzerland. At the last places in the list of there are Mauritania, Chad and Yemen.

Over the past 20 years, investments in culture, education and science in Azerbaijan in terms of GDP vary, but generally remain at low positions among comparable capacities of other countries.

In the ranking of spending on education, accounts in Azerbaijan are 2.6% share of GDP, and they even decreased from 3.4% in 2004. For comparison: in the US - 5.5% of GDP, in Sweden and Norway - 6.7%, in Slovenia - 5.2%, in France - 5.6% and Canada - 4.9%.

With investments in health care, i.e., in public health the situation is also disadvantaged in Azerbaijan. If, according to World Health Organization, in average for the countries in the world expenses for health care  in the year are 8.7% of GDP, then in Azerbaijan only 1% of GDP. Moreover, leader in investments in the health of people is the US – 15.3% of GDP.

R&D investments in Azerbaijan are also low - in recent years, they have consistently kept at around 0.2%. In Germany, Denmark, Austria's R&D investments are about 2.5%, in the US - 2.6%, in Israel - 4.6%, South Korea - 2.3%, Singapore - 2.3%, in the Japan - 3.4%, Finland - 3.4%, Sweden - 3.7%.

In addition, the return on investment in science in comparison with other countries is very low. The main reason is the weakness and inefficiency of Azerbaijani science and the lack of demand for innovation economy. There are practically no competitive markets - the main stimulator of innovation. According to a 10-point scale, the index of knowledge economy, based on the three key variables - stimulating of the economy and institutional regime, education, innovation and information and communication technologies - Azerbaijan is gaining 4.56 points on a par with Lebanon.

Innovation Index in the knowledge economy of Azerbaijan is only 4.01 points out of 10. According to the index of prosperity LEGATUM for 2014, Azerbaijan held 79th place between Georgia and Peru from 142 possible.

Real strategy of development of Azerbaijan is traditional - high production costs and low investment into the person, in human capital. Again, let us quote S. Kuznets, who wrote in the last century that for scientific and technological leap of the country there must be accumulated the necessary starting human capital. Otherwise, there is a false start [Kuznets S., 1972: 247-258].

The growth of investment in physical capital should be increased by raising the investment attractiveness of Azerbaijan and regions, inflows of private foreign and domestic capital in the economy and improving of the quality of human capital. The transformation of the oil factor in human capital promotes the development of human potential, which has the highest importance among the inexhaustible and ever-improving natural resources of strategic importance, and always acts as a decisive factor in the development. Recently the dependence of countries, the standard of living and welfare on the knowledge and capabilities once again have deduced the importance of the human factor to the forefront.


Adam Smith's ideas about the «economic man» are still discussed even in scientific circles, insisting that society is moving in the accumulation of material wealth. It is this accumulation of attempt to link the success of countries such as the US, Japan, Germany. However, marked form of accumulation was typical for economic practice XVI-XX centuries, but not for today. The modern trend of the world, in which the major factor of sustainable development is human capital, is becoming increasingly powerful, and the investment in the capital is not considered as an assistance, but as the strategic line, providing increased efficiency of the economy.

The achievement of sustainable and balanced development in the long term requires the optimization of the economic development model. Is necessary to use oil revenues more effectively on the development of human capital, and on this basis to make modernized leap. This requires a new phase of economic reforms to achieve effective combination of state, society, economy, business and technology. The implementation of this model is necessary for the transition to innovative path of development, improvement of the quality of governance, education, science and efficiency of the country's competitiveness. The analysis shows that the skillful using of the human and resource potential, as well as the unique geopolitical situation of the country will lead to higher competitiveness of Azerbaijan globally, but in the end - to accelerate the process of improvement of the well-being of the whole population.


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