DOI kodi: 10.52340/ekonomisti.2026.02.14

Expanded Summary

   This article examines the economic and security implications of the deepening confrontation between Iran and the United States. Drawing on the theoretical framework of international political economy, the paper examines this bilateral tension as a complex multi-level conflict model that simultaneously operates on the economic, military-strategic, and normative levels.

   The first part of the analysis examines the impact of economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran’s macroeconomics: the depreciation of the national currency, inflation, a catastrophic decline in oil exports, and a reduction in state revenues. Particular attention is paid to the problem of the irrational effect of sanctions—in particular, the fact that economic pressure has the most severe impact on the civilian population rather than on the ruling elite.

   The same section discusses the current situation, where on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel carried out a joint military operation against the Islamic Republic of Iran, within the framework of which the Air Force launched extensive missile strikes on various strategic Iranian facilities.

   In response to the US-Israeli military strikes, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz - a passageway for 20% of the world\\'s oil and 20% of its liquefied gas. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz clearly confirmed that Iran, despite its economic isolation, remains an indispensable and dangerous node in the global energy system.

   The second part of the analysis is devoted to the changes in energy markets: the marginalization of Iran in the global oil market, the formation of alternative energy coalitions, and the formation of a new economic hierarchy among the Persian Gulf states. In parallel with these processes, Iran\\'s strategic adaptation mechanisms are discussed - energy partnership with China, sanctions circumvention schemes, and the expansion of barter trade.

   The third part of the paper deals with the transformation of the Middle East geopolitical environment: the expansion of Iran’s proxy networks, the provocative growth of its nuclear potential, and vectors of regional destabilization in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The focus is on the classic dynamics of the security dilemma, where defensive moves by one side appear to be a threat to the other.

   Finally, the paper discusses how this conflict will involve global state actors—Russia, China, and the European Union—and what systemic challenges it poses to international stability, multilateral institutions, and the architecture of global governance. The article concludes that the Iranian case is a clear example of how an economic crisis can transform into a cumulative security crisis, the consequences of which go beyond the framework of bilateral relations between the two sides.