EKONOMISTI
The international scientific and analytical, reviewed, printing and electronic journal of Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University
The international scientific and analytical, reviewed, printing and electronic journal of Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University
Journal number 2 ∘ Avtandil Sulaberidze ∘ Giorgi Tsuladze ∘ Vladimer Sulaberidze ∘ Nino Gomelauri ∘
APPLICATION OF COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF OFFICIAL POLLS AND EXPERT ESTIMATIONS OF INDICATORS IN DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
Summary Projections are generally based on official demographic polls of national statistics. The projections (especially in developing countries) that are based on inexact statistical information of expected natural movement and migration of the population have often some inaccuracies. In this regard, we argue that is preferably to have an evidence based expert assessment as an alternative measure to the official census while doing projections. Considering the example of Georgian census 2014, it can be said that expert assessments were more accurate. This means that in case of inexact projections, comparative analysis of official statistics and experts assessments will ensure enhanced and more accurate projections. Key words: demographic statistic, evaluative data, birth rate, mortality rate, indicator of migration. Introduction During review of current demographic processes in Georgia, besides analysis of official statistical data, the evaluation method is used, which ofJournal number 2 ∘ Givi Lemonjava ∘
MONETARY POLICY: STRUCTURE AND TASKS
Expanded Summary State policies influence the environment, where business has to operate. The perspectives of economical development greatly depend on the quality of this environment. Among these policies is the monetary policy, which is created and performed by the central bank of the country. From the point of view of influence on economy, among other policies of the government, the monetary policy is the most viable mechanism, which is quickly corrected in response to the expected changes of the macroeconomic situation. The result of the expansive monetary policies, which where implemented in many countries, was high inflation. In this regard, especially outstanding were 70-80-ies. In this period in many countries, including economically developed, the inflation reached double-digit indicators. One positive result of this prolonged inflation was that recognition of the loss received as a result of inflation became almost universal. This influenced the monetary policies andJournal number 2 ∘ Tengiz Kavtaradze ∘
THE USA POLICY OF INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE AND THE POSSIBILITIES TO USE IT IN GEORGIA
Expanded Summary Innovation is a novelty based on the use of gains of scientific knowledge and advanced experience in technologies, technics, labor organization and management. The use of scientific and technological novelties is related to all human activities including the agrarian sector. For example in the production the use of technical and economic innovations means the development of new types of projects, as well as the implementation of new technologies, progressive forms of labor and entrepreneurship. The USA state agrarian innovative policy is an integral part of the country's social – innovative policy identying in agriculture the goals, main directions and methods of state power functioning. In agriculture the most significant goal of innovative palicy is to create the mechanism. That provides the successful application of the latest advances in technics and technologies, generally, the results of national and international innovative activities,Journal number 2 ∘ Tamar Lazariashvili ∘
EFFECTIVENESS OF SUBSIDIZE PROGRAMS IN VINERY-WINERY
Expanded Summary In the article is estimated the supporting politics of attracting financial resources ; is proved its vital importance for the economy. Is analyzed the system of subsidizing of viticulture-vine-growing and is made the conclusion that the advantage of subsidizing will support providing minimal prices and direct financing of the crops. Agriculture in Georgia has the biggest economic and social role. It is often discussed as one of the ways of overcoming poverty. Nowadays the production .made in the agriculture of Georgia is less competiveness than foreign production and can’t manage to assume the important part of the market. The country has a big amount of non-assumed potential in the agriculture. One of the ways of assuming and stimulating this production in Georgia as in foreign countries is considered the politics of subsidizing. In the viticulture from one hand is felt the supportJournal number 2 ∘ Zurab Garakanidze ∘
HUNGER – THE HIDDEN THREAT TO GEORGIAN NATION
Extended Summary It is statistically confirmed that throughout last few weeks, suicide rates have significantly increased in Georgia. Especially alarming is the number of suicide among teens. Modern psychological studies have revealed that food security - food sufficiency, accessibility, as well as over-dependence on import and food safety are among the main reasons for growing suicide rates. Suicide is not just a Georgian problem. According to data from international organizations, there is one suicide every 40 seconds around the World, i.e. about 800 thousand people die per year. The latest scientific findings show that two-thirds of suicides occur in the countries with a low level of average income; it is also known that risks of suicide increase when there is a limited access to healthcare services. Kommersant’s article ‘Youth Suicide Becomes Epidemic’ indicates that, at the moment, suicide growth has so far been avoided by three countries - Sweden, Finland andJournal number 2 ∘ Lia Totladze ∘
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR GEORGIA: SELECTION LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Summary Cyclical feature of economies in a violent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points. The most appropriate tools to solve this problem are the leading indicators and indexes based on leading indicators. It is difficult to rank which types of indicators have most weight in foretelling the course of the economy, and subsequently, its impact on currency market. Given the volatile nature of transformed economy, there is a need an accurate leading indicator of economic performance (In particular for Georgia). In this paper we try collect leading economic indicators, study their features and engage diffusion index for Georgia. Keywords: Leading Indicators,Diffusion Index, Composite Index, Time Series; JEL Classification: C52, C53, C18, C18, E37. 1. Introduction For many years a system of leading economic indicators, first developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has been widely used in the United StatesJournal number 2 ∘ Aytan Samedzadeh ∘
SOME QUESTIONS OF ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION’S INCOME
The disturbances that are faced by the global economy during the last years, the on-going economic crisis influenced the social standings of the population. In various European countries we can observe a decrease in funds, which are allocated for social programs, and a decrease in real income of the population. The author of this article believes that the increase of monetary income of the population has a direct relationship with the level of economic development. At the same time, the level of growth of the GDP can be higher or lower than increase of monetary income of the population. We have analyzed the relationship between GDP and the income of the population of the country for the last 10 years. The results show that an increase of GDP in 3.4 times was accompanied by a 6 times decrease of poverty. Lately a just thought prevails in economic literature – when we talk about the quality of life, we take into account not only the income of the population, consumption of materJournal number 2 ∘ Giorgi Tetrauli ∘
METHOD OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN RESEARCH OF ECONOMIC CYCLES
Expanded Summary On the current stage of world economic development periodic macroeconomic fluctuations and crises are becoming increasingly important and amplitudinous issues. The problem of economic cycles and crises has been researched since 19th century by leading economists (Schumpeter, Marx, Keynes and others). Nowadays this issue is thoroughly studied in western economies, whereas in Georgia the challenge of cyclical economic development is relatively new. In modern surveys keen interest is expressed to the issue of interrelations between cycles of different length (Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Julien Matheron (2003); Acie S. Forrer, Donald A. Forrer (2014); Modelski G. (2001); Korotayev A., Tsirel S. (2010) and others), which proves actuality of this stream of economic theory. The purpose of this article is to reviews theoretical concepts of spectral analysis-one of the most widespread modern methods used for research of economic cycles, as well as its practical use for the economy ofJournal number 2 ∘ Giorgi Tetrauli ∘
JUGLAR CYCLES IN ECONOMY OF GEORGIA
Expanded Summary In the cyclical theory of economic development Juglar's medium-term cycles, known as business cycles, play the most important role. In the second part of 19th century, when economics was developing into a science, Juglar was the economist who made an attempt to introduce new statistical methods in economic analysis. Cycles that he discovered are strongly correlated with different financial and economic cycles, including Kondratiev's Long Waves ad Kitchin's short-term cycles. According to empirical evidence, Juglar's cycles have the strongest impact on economic activity and because of this they are defined as basic cycles. According to numerous surveys, medium-term (business) cycles had the strongest impact on the dynamics of economic development, and because of that they are treated as basic cycles. The goal of this article is to discover medium-term cycles in economy of Georgia, as well as make corresponding deductions about the future economic development of our cJournal number 2 ∘ Irakli Doghonadze ∘
INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON GOVERMENT SECURITIES MARKET (ON THE EXAMPLE OF GEORGIA)
Expanded Summary In the following article the influence of monetary shocks on Securities and real estate market on the example of Georgia is discussed. Examination of impulse response functions within the Vector auto-regression model has been carried out for that. Two types of models were used during the research. An insufficient number of observations on key variables was the reason for separation of the models. According to research money supply shock has no important influence on Securities Interest Rates and we can speak about only its importance during short-term period but influence of money supply during medium and long-term period is limited. According to research influence of money supply shock on real estate price index is also important. Above mentioned completely refers to the idea in economic theory about encouraging economics by money supply during short-term period where real estate market is not the exception. Data and econometric model: Two types of mode