Assessment of business environment development problems in Azerbaijan by key risk indicators

Amin Agagulov Rovshan

Journal number 1 ∘ Amin Agagulov Rovshan ∘
Assessment of business environment development problems in Azerbaijan by key risk indicators

journal N1 2025

Summary

The presented article examines the current state of the business environment in Azerbaijan and the problems arising in its development. In particular, attention is paid to the risk factor. It is known that the development of the business environment in Azerbaijan is of great importance in terms of ensuring sustainable economic development and increasing social welfare. This necessity is based on a number of key factors that require the implementation of reforms and strategic initiatives aimed at improving the local business environment. In particular, the article notes that the economy of Azerbaijan largely depends on the oil and gas sector. This sector accounts for most of GDP and exports. But the volatility of oil prices on world markets clearly shows the risks of such a dependence. Diversification of the economy can be made possible by promoting development in non-oil sectors such as agriculture, tourism and technology. According to the latest statistics, in 2023, the non-oil sector accounted for only 10% of the country's exports, which once again emphasizes the need for diversification [1].

Key words: business, risk, investment, small and medium-sized enterprises, innovation, analysis, problem, assessment, finance, tax, institutional, etc.

Introduction

A well-developed business environment is essential for attracting foreign direct investment (XBI). XBI makes a significant contribution to economic growth by bringing capital, technology and experience. However, problems such as bureaucracy, corruption and lack of transparency alienate potential investors. For example, in 2023, Azerbaijan ranked 180th among 126 countries in the international transparency organization's Corruption Perception Index. Solving these problems can make the country more attractive to international investors [2].

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) play an important role in economic development by creating jobs and promoting innovation. SMEs in Azerbaijan face a number of challenges, including limited access to finance and a high tax burden. The survey showed that 45% of entrepreneurs noted the difficulty of access to financial resources [3] as the main obstacle. Improving access to loans and reducing administrative barriers can enable SMEs to develop.

A healthy business environment is directly related to an increase in employment opportunities. Supporting entrepreneurship and business expansion can solve the problem of unemployment in Azerbaijan, especially among young people. In 2024, youth unemployment in the country was at about 15%. Startups and developing policies that promote innovation can significantly reduce this figure.

Innovation is the main driving force of competitiveness in the global economy. Investment in the field of research and development (TI) in Azerbaijan currently accounts for only 0.2% of GDP. The establishment of innovation centers and incentives for technology-based businesses can strengthen Azerbaijan's position as an innovation leader in the region.

Complex and contradictory regulatory frameworks complicate business activities in Azerbaijan. Simplifying business registration, licensing and tax compliance procedures is essential to creating a more business-friendly environment. For example, business at the moment the fact that the average time required to start was eight days would encourage more entrepreneurs to enter the market.

Its location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia creates great potential for Azerbaijan's regional trade opportunities. The development of infrastructure such as ports, railways and logistics centers can facilitate trade and turn Azerbaijan into a major transit hub. In 2023, the country's trade turnover amounted to $ 38 billion, most of which came from energy exports. Expanding trade outside the energy sector could further strengthen economic resilience.

Main part

Analysis of risk assessment models for business activities in Azerbaijan is of great importance. These models are aimed at identifying potential hazards, increasing the effectiveness of business decisions, and minimizing financial losses. Business risks in Azerbaijan can be mainly divided into the following categories: economic risks: oil price volatility, inflation and devaluation threats. Legal risks: changes in legislation, non-protection of property rights. Market risks: increased competition and decreased demand. Financial risks: high interest rates on loans and difficulties with access to financial resources. Operational risks: problems in logistics and supply chain. Looking at international practice, we see that several general approach models are used for risk assessment:

1. SWOT analysis. SWOT analysis is used to evaluate strengths (Strengths), weaknesses (Weaknesses), opportunities (Opportunities) and threats (Threats) of the business environment. In Azerbaijan, this model is widely used to identify opportunities for economic diversification and the impact of oil dependence.

Strengths

- Geographical location: Azerbaijan is located in the center of the Caucasus region, at the intersection of Europe and Asia, which creates favorable conditions for international trade and transit.

- Natural resources: the country has rich oil and gas reserves, which is a major economic pillar.

- Government initiatives: there are government programs to improve infrastructure, develop the digital economy and promote the non-oil sector.

- Energy infrastructure: international projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and TANAP strengthen the position in the energy sector.

- Patience and security: despite Regional conflicts, the country maintains internal stability, which creates a favorable environment for business.

Weaknesses

- Economic dependence: the oil and gas sector accounts for most of the GDP, the economy is non-diversified.

- Transparency problem: corruption and informal payments have a negative impact on the business environment.

- Access to finance: there are difficulties of access to financial resources for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs).

- Bureaucracy: multi-stage procedures in business registration and other operations.

- Lack of innovation and technology: the lack of investment in research and development limits the development of innovative businesses.

Opportunities

- Economic diversification: potential for the development of agriculture, tourism, ICT and alternative energy.

- International trade: opportunities for Azerbaijan to become a logistics hub between Europe and China.

- Technology and digitalization: developing the startup ecosystem and introducing digital technologies.

- Regional cooperation: strengthening regional integration with projects such as the Middle Corridor.

- Tourism sector: rich cultural heritage, natural beauty and hospitality contribute to the development of Tourism.

Threats

- Oil price volatility: the fall in oil prices in the global market can have a serious impact on the economy.

- Regional conflicts: delays in the recovery process after the Karabakh conflict and other security problems.

- International competition: strong competition in international markets for non-oil products.

- Climate change: environmental complications can negatively affect agriculture and Water Resources.

- Demographic problems: the difficulty of maintaining a balance between population growth and job growth.

2. PESTLE analysis. This model analyzes political (Political), Economic (Economic), Social (Social), technological (Technological), legal (Legal) and environmental (Environmental) factors. For example, the PESTLE model evaluates the main factors affecting the business environment in Azerbaijan, including changes in tax legislation and technological innovations.

Political Factors

- Government stability: Azerbaijan's political stability and strong executive power ensure security in the business environment.

- Legislation and regulation: recent changes in tax legislation and the creation of free economic zones create opportunities for business. However, in some areas, the complexity of the arrangements raises additional difficulties.

- International Cooperation: Azerbaijan cooperates with various international economic organizations, including the World Trade Organization. Regional projects, such as the Middle Corridor and the Southern Gas Corridor, increase the country's strategic importance.

- Corruption: problems related to transparency, especially in cooperation with the public sector, can create obstacles for business.

Economic Factors

-Dependence on oil: most of the country's economy depends on the oil and gas sector, which limits the development of non-oil sectors.

- Stabilization of the manat: although the stability of the exchange rate creates some stability in the business environment, the risks of devaluation remain.

- Tax burdens: although tax exemptions and benefits encourage small and medium-sized businesses, in some areas the tax burden is high.

- Infrastructure development: infrastructure projects such as roads, railways and airports enable business expansion.

Social Factors

- Demographic structure: the young population of Azerbaijan provides potential growth in the labor market, but the demand for qualified workers in the labor market is not fully met.

- Education and skills: although there are innovations in the education system, vocational training and the development of digital skills are not developing rapidly enough to adapt to the business environment.

- Social stability: a stable social environment has a positive impact on the development of the business environment.

- Consumer behaviors: in the country, consumer behaviors are still characterized by traditional approaches, which increases the demand for digitalization.

Technological Factors

- Digital infrastructure: the quality and coverage of Internet services is increasing, but digital opportunities are limited in the regions.

- Startup ecosystem: in recent years, government programs have been introduced to promote innovation and startups.

- Research and development: the lack of investment in research and technology slows down the development of innovative businesses.

- E-Government: initiatives such as "ASAN xidmət" are an important step to reduce bureaucratic barriers.

Legal Factors

- Legal framework: although the laws governing the business environment are mostly modern, there are application problems in some areas.

- Intellectual property: deficiencies in the protection of intellectual property rights hinder the development of innovations.

- Tax and judicial systems: improvements are required in the field of tax regulations and enforcement of court decisions.

- Labor Code: the protection of labor rights affects the transparency and development of the labor market.

Environmental Factors (Environmental)

-Exploitation of Natural Resources: intensive exploitation of oil and gas resources causes environmental problems.

- Alternative energy: there are government initiatives for the development of solar and wind energy.

- Environmental legislation: although legislation is applied to prevent pollution, control mechanisms are insufficient.

- Climate change: climate change has a negative impact on agriculture and Water Resources.

3. Monte Carlo Simulation. Statistical modeling is used to determine the likelihood and potential effects of risks. This approach is especially applicable in the financial sector, for example, to predict the effect of changes in exchange rates.

Monte Carlo simulation (MKS) is one of the widely used methods for analyzing uncertainties in decision making and predicting possible outcomes. Analysis of the business environment in Azerbaijan with this approach can provide important data for risk assessment and management in various sectors.

The application of Monte Carlo simulation can be analyzed in the following main directions for Azerbaijani realities:

Assessment of economic risks

The dependence of the Azerbaijani economy on oil is one of the main risk factors. The Monte Carlo simulation can be used to assess the impact of fluctuations in oil prices. The simulation allows you to predict the impact of a decrease or increase in oil prices on government revenues, GDP and foreign exchange reserves, taking into account various scenarios. This analysis helps the government and the business sector to develop more sustainable strategies against economic shocks.

MKS is an effective tool for assessing the profitability and risks of various investment projects. The financial indicators of infrastructure projects, investments in the non-oil sector and startups in Azerbaijan can be analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation and income-profit ratios can be determined. For example, the impact of investments in agriculture on climate change can be analyzed on various probabilities.

Monte Carlo simulation can be used to assess the impact of changes in tax policy on businesses. By conducting simulations with different tax rates and benefit scenarios, it can be determined how they will affect the development of small and medium-sized businesses. This approach allows the government to develop an optimal tax policy.

Monte Carlo simulation can also be used to determine the scale of losses caused by corruption and transparency problems in economic development. Based on various assumptions, the positive impact of reducing the level of corruption on GDP and the business environment can be assessed.

Problems of labour market instability and unemployment in Azerbaijan can be analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation helps to predict changes in the level of unemployment in various economic scenarios and to study the impact of these changes on social problems.

The impact of climate change in the agricultural and tourism sector can be analyzed through the Monte Carlo simulation. For example, how the differences between rainy and dry years can affect productivity and income, it is possible to predict this with different probabilities.

Monte Carlo simulation is of strategic importance for the management of uncertainties in the Azerbaijani business environment. This approach provides forecasting of results and optimizing risks in various scenarios. For example, small business owners can simulate various financial scenarios to protect themselves from fluctuations in exchange rates.

Difficulties of applying Monte Carlo simulation

The following problems exist for the wide application of MKS in Azerbaijan:

* Lack of high-quality and accurate statistical data.

* Poor IT infrastructure in some regions.

* Insufficient knowledge of this approach by business leaders and decision-makers.

4. ISO 31000 framework. ISO 31000 is an international standard that organizations use to improve risk management and make healthier decisions. An analysis of the business environment in Azerbaijan under the ISO 31000 framework helps to understand how this framework is applied to properly assess and manage risks. The ISO 31000 framework mainly offers guidelines related to the identification, assessment and management of risks. This framework allows to analyze the risks on any activity of the organization and to be prepared against future threats.

The implementation of this framework in the business environment in Azerbaijan is aimed at economic development, business sustainability and strengthening international trade relations. Some key factors in the business environment in Azerbaijan should be considered in accordance with the ISO 31000 framework:

* Orientation towards Risk culture: the business environment in Azerbaijan may still have conservative approaches to risks in some areas. The ISO 31000 framework can help implement more strategic and informed risk management methods by changing this culture.

* Legal and regulatory risks: the legislative and regulatory environment in Azerbaijan, especially issues of compliance with international standards, increase risks. ISO 31000 helps to avoid such regulatory difficulties and manage adaptation processes.

* Infrastructure and technology risks: uncertainties in infrastructure and technology are also related to business risks. The ISO 31000 framework offers a systematic approach to assessing the impact of technological development and infrastructure problems on risks and managing them.

* Monetary risks: factors such as inflation, exchange rate changes and economic crises pose significant risks to business in Azerbaijan. ISO 31000 provides methods to analyze such economic risks and to be prepared for them.

* Human resources risk: the volatility of the workforce market in the Azerbaijani market, the risks associated with labor legislation and employee rights are also a key part of the ISO 31000 framework. This framework helps to make human resource management more efficient and risk-free.

* Ecology and environmental risks: environmental factors in the Azerbaijani economy, including environmental threats, resource shortages and other ecosystem risk issues, are important risk areas within ISO 31000. This framework offers structures to effectively manage environmental risks and make socially responsible decisions.

Applying the ISO 31000 framework to the business environment in Azerbaijan can help strengthen the decision-making processes of organizations and give them long-term sustainability by systematically assessing these risks. This approach is of great importance, especially for domestic companies competing in global markets.

Problems of risk assessment of business environment in Azerbaijan

The development of the business environment in Azerbaijan is very important in terms of economic sustainability and social well-being of the country. However, the development of the business environment faces some difficulties throughout the country. Let's look at these problems and their digital analysis below:

1. Regulation on the tax system

Entrepreneurs in Azerbaijan sometimes face very high tax burdens and difficult administrative procedures. This complicates the development of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). According to statistics for 2024, the share of the informal economy in Azerbaijan is about 20% of the gross domestic product (GDP). This narrows the tax base and reduces state revenues [4].

To assess the impact of tax policy on the business environment in Azerbaijan in figures, consider some key indicators. These figures can help assess the power of tax policy in general and the development in the business environment:

* Corporate tax rate: the corporate tax rate in Azerbaijan in 2025 is 20%. This is a relatively low indicator compared to other countries. For example, in the countries of the European Union, this rate ranges from 25% to 30%. This makes Azerbaijan more attractive to investors [5].

* VAT (Value Added Tax): the VAT rate is 18% in Azerbaijan. This is a moderate rate compared to Europe and other countries, but it can be a burden for small and medium-sized enterprises. However, discounts are available for some products and services.

* Tax exemptions and exemptions: tax exemptions and exemptions are applied in certain areas in Azerbaijan. For example, certain tax benefits are provided to agricultural, technological industries and exporting enterprises. These concessions stimulate an increase in investment and the creation of new jobs.

* Tax revenues: in 2024, about 70% of the total revenues of the state budget of Azerbaijan consisted of tax collections. This shows how important the role of the tax system in the financial system of the state is [6].

* Investment climate: in 2024, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Azerbaijan amounted to US $ 2 billion. It is recognized that tax policy plays an important role in attracting these investments, since low tax rates and tax incentives stimulate investors to invest in the country [6].

* Ease of doing Business: according to the World Bank report on the 2020 World Economic Forum, Azerbaijan ranked 190th out of 34 countries [7]. The simplification of Tax Policy and the introduction of electronic tax systems contributed to the improvement of this indicator.

* Tax Control and transparency: increasing tax control in Azerbaijan, especially measures related to electronic systems, allows to make the behavior of taxpayers more transparent. In 2024, more than 90% of taxpayers submitted their tax returns electronically [8], which increases the effectiveness of tax collection.

These figures show the impact of Azerbaijan's tax policy on the business environment, as well as the potential for economic development and investment attraction. In general, the existing structure of Azerbaijan's tax policy is attractive to local and foreign investors, but in some areas there is a need to simplify and increase transparency.

2. Accessibility to financial resources

According to a business development survey, 45% of entrepreneurs report difficult access to financial resources. In particular, small and medium-sized businesses are experiencing muskets in obtaining loans. In an environment where average annual interest rates exceed 16%, entrepreneurs without Personal Capital face serious obstacles to realizing their business ideas [9].

Access to financial resources is an important factor in the development of the business environment in Azerbaijan, especially for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). Assessment of the situation in this area, understanding the availability of various financial resources, their cost and accessibility helps. Below I present an assessment of the situation of Azerbaijan in this regard with figures:

* Access to loans: as of the beginning of 2024, the total amount of loans from commercial banks in Azerbaijan at the end of 2023 amounted to more than 22 billion Manats. About 40% of this amount are loans to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). This indicates an increase in the accessibility of SMEs to financial resources, but there are still difficulties for numerous enterprises [9].

* Information and support services of banks: commercial banks in Azerbaijan, especially state banks such as" Azerbaijan Industrial Bank "and" Aqrarkredit", offer special financial support to entrepreneurs. In 2023, loans to SMEs by state banks amounted to more than 7 billion Manats. Also, small businesses are provided with various programs and consulting services by the State [9].

* Financial support programs: there are several government financial support programs in Azerbaijan to support entrepreneurs. For example, financial support programs offered by the" Fund for support to exporters "and" small and Medium Business Development Agency " allocate millions of Manats annually. In 2023, within the framework of these programs, more than 150 million Manats were provided to entrepreneurs [9].

* Credit risks of business entities: at the end of 2023, indicators of credit risks of business entities in Azerbaijan have significantly improved. The repayment rate on loans is around 88%, which indicates a high level of accessibility to financial resources. However, loan rates may still remain high for some small and medium-sized businesses [8].

* Micro-lending: the micro-lending sector is also developing in Azerbaijan. In 2023, more than 100 million micro-loans were issued. This increases access to financial resources, especially for small businesses operating in the agricultural and non-oil sectors [8].

* Investment market: according to 2023, the volume of Azerbaijan's investment market is more than 10 billion Manats. However, the entry of entrepreneurs, especially small businesses, into the capital market is still limited. Although certain incentive measures and tax incentives are proposed by the state, there is a need for further improvement in this area [6].

* Investment programs and investment attraction: the volume of domestic and foreign investments in Azerbaijan in 2023 amounted to about US $ 2 billion. These investments are especially focused on the oil and gas sector and infrastructure projects, but the access of small and medium-sized enterprises to financial resources accounts for a small part of this amount [6].

* Interest rates: loan rates of commercial banks in Azerbaijan in 2023 ranged from about 12% to 18%. These interest rates can be relatively high for small and medium-sized businesses. However, with certain benefits and investment support provided by the state, these interest rates are reduced from time to time [6].

* Government incentives and subsidies: there are various government programs and subsidies to support the development of the business environment in Azerbaijan. In 2023, the funds allocated from the state budget to support entrepreneurship amounted to 1.2 billion Manats. This is an important indicator for creating more favorable financial conditions for businesses [6].

3. Corruption and institutional problems

Corruption and institutional problems in the business environment in Azerbaijan seriously affect the economic development of the country and the interest of foreign investors in the country. Transparency International's 2023 Corruption Perception Index (CPI), in which Azerbaijan ranks 180th out of 126 countries [10], shows the level of corruption in the country and the functional shortcomings of institutions. This situation shows that transparency and trust in the legal system in the business sphere are weak. Corruption is one of the biggest problems in the economy of Azerbaijan, especially in the public sector. This is also one of the most important factors affecting businesses, as businesses are sometimes forced to operate in accordance with opaque rules and procedures imposed by government and local authorities.

4. Foreign trade barriers

Barriers to foreign trade in Azerbaijan seriously affect the development of the economy and access to international markets. For a more specific assessment of these obstacles, I present a digital assessment taking into account the following factors:

- Customs duties and additional costs (6/10): customs duties in Azerbaijan's foreign trade are high, which complicates trade operations. High taxes and fees create additional costs in bringing products to the market. This assessment can be given as 6/10, since although there are certain developments in this area with the introduction of digital technologies, the problem still remains.

- Bureaucratic obstacles and paperwork (7/10): bureaucratic blockages and complex documentation requirements in the trade process are still a hindrance to foreign trade. For this reason, it is necessary to speed up the procedures for local and foreign businesses. This indicator can be estimated at 7/10, since the effectiveness is still low, even if some steps have been taken.

- Trade policy opacity (5/10): trade policy uncertainty, and sometimes lack of transparency, is a concern, especially for foreign investors. This indicator can be estimated at 5/10, since changes in policies and uncertainties pose risks in business planning.

- Currency risks and Exchange courses (6/10): volatility and exchange rate risks in the foreign exchange market of Azerbaijan cause additional difficulties for companies operating in international trade. An assessment of 6/10 can be given in this area, because although certain steps have been taken to regulate the economy, there is still volatility.

- Transportation and logistics costs (7/10): Azerbaijan's geographical location and infrastructure improvements create additional transportation and logistics costs for international trade operations. Although some projects have been implemented to solve this issue, the 7/10 assessment is applied because development is still necessary in this area.

In general, the Azerbaijani business environment can be estimated at 6/10 due to obstacles to foreign trade. This indicates the need for more work on Economic Policy and structural reforms in the country.

5. Limitations of Personnel Training and innovation opportunities

The lack of qualified personnel in the business sector hinders the country's development prospects. According to statistics for 2024, the number of people receiving higher education in technical specialties in Azerbaijan is about 15%. In addition, research and development (R&D) spending is just 0.2% of the country'S GDP [11].

The innovation factor plays an important role in the development of the business environment in Azerbaijan. In recent years, a number of measures have been taken to increase innovative activity in the country. In 2022, 2.6% of Azerbaijan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was allocated to research and development spending, which indicates that innovation occupies a more important place in the economy. Also, according to the data of the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan in 2022, the number of industrial enterprises for innovation activities increased. In 2019, only 7.5% of industrial enterprises across the country were engaged in innovation activities, but in 2022 this rate increased to 12% [11].

At the same time, there is an increase in the number of startups and small enterprises operating in innovative areas in Azerbaijan. If in 2021 there were more than 80 startups operating in the country, then by the beginning of 2023 this figure exceeded 150. Government initiatives such as the" innovation and Technology Park " create favorable conditions, especially for young entrepreneurs and startups. This has led Azerbaijan to make certain progress in the international innovation ranking.

However, there are still certain obstacles to the further development of the innovation environment. The lack of funds spent by Azerbaijan on research activities is one of the main factors slowing the development of this area. In 2020, the country's budget for research activities was only 0.2%. This indicator, in comparison with developed countries, is very low and indicates that additional investments are necessary for the implementation of innovative activity on a larger scale [11].

And the potential of domestic enterprises to create innovative products and services is not yet fully ready to compete at the international level. In 2022, the share of innovative products produced in the country in total industrial production was 4.3%, which emphasizes the need for the country to carry out additional work to produce more high-tech products. Nevertheless, the greater cooperation of the state and private sectors in the field of innovation, as well as the greater application of international practices, will contribute to the strengthening of the innovation factor in the business environment of Azerbaijan [11].

The result

The need to develop the business environment in Azerbaijan is indisputable. By implementing targeted reforms and promoting a culture of transparency with innovation, Azerbaijan can ensure sustainable economic development, reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons and increase its global competitiveness, thus having a stronger economy.

SWOT analysis of the business environment in Azerbaijan shows that in addition to strengths and opportunities, there are serious weaknesses and threats in the country's economy:

* Increase investment in non-oil sectors for economic diversification;

* Increasing transparency and strengthening the fight against corruption;

* Promotion of innovation and development of infrastructures in the field of technology;

* Facilitate access to finance, develop special credit programs especially for SMEs;

* Increasing Regional cooperation and optimizing transit opportunities.

The implementation of these recommendations will make Azerbaijan's business environment more competitive and sustainable.

PESTEL's analysis of the business environment in Azerbaijan shows that there are both opportunities and a number of problems in the country. Promoting economic diversification, supporting innovation and improving the legal framework can make the business environment more sustainable and competitive.

Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for analyzing risks and opportunities in the business environment in Azerbaijan. This approach to diversifying the economy, improving investment strategies and solving socio-economic problems can provide valuable information to the government and the private sector. But for this it is important to expand the database and remove obstacles to the application of analysis methods.

In general, access to financial resources in Azerbaijan has improved in recent years. But small and medium-sized businesses still face some difficulties, especially due to high interest rates and bureaucratic obstacles. State support and the expansion of financial services of banks have the potential to further improve this situation.

The application and development of business risk assessment models in Azerbaijan is of great importance for increasing the sustainability of the economic environment. Accurate assessment and effective management strategies can contribute to protecting business entities from risks and achieving long-term success.

Literature

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